SELLING · 7 MIN READ
Overpriced in a falling market? Why buyers call on day one
A buyer’s advocate explains how your asking price gets tested in the first week, and what makes buyers pay more.
The short version
Buyer’s advocates test your asking price in week one, value homes off the last four weeks of sales, and read a price reduction as a price that was wrong from the start. Price off recent sales from launch, and run one clear process when buyers compete.
Key takeaways
- Advertised prices on Unreserved fell an average of 5% within four weeks of launch.
- Buyer’s advocates call on overpriced listings straight away rather than waiting.
- They value off sales from the last four weeks, and discount anything older.
- Buyers pay more out of fear of missing out or scarcity with a deadline.
- February often runs hot in auction-heavy states.
Across homes that went live on Unreserved over a recent six-week period, the advertised price fell by an average of 5% within four weeks of launch. That’s sellers adjusting to the market in real time, one price change at a time.
So what does the buyer’s side do while that’s happening? Wait for the price to come down?
I put that question to Property Investment Professionals of Australia (PIPA) Chair Cate Bakos, a Melbourne buyer’s advocate who has been buying for clients since 2011. Her answer changes how you should think about your launch price.
“I always engage. I never wait.”
What’s on the internet is not necessarily what’s in the vendor’s mind. A lot of vendors are loath to put up a price tag that might make them feel like they’re underselling, or they assume the buyer will negotiate anyway, so they leave a buffer. And we can’t assume all vendors are the same. So I’ll always pick up the phone and have a chat with the agent, even if the listing is new.
Cate Bakos, Chair, PIPA
She’s not ringing to make an offer. She’s ringing to find out whether the gap is real.
If I say to an agent, you’ve listed it at $1.2 million and I’ve got a client with a budget closer to $1.1 million, am I wasting my time sending them to this property? I’ll get the answer I need. A phone call can leave something on your maybe list or take it off.
For a seller, that matters. The buyers most likely to pay well are already testing your price in week one. If your number is a buffer rather than a position, they find out quickly, and so does everyone they talk to.
Why week one is the hardest week to be overpriced
Cate describes a pattern most sellers only notice in hindsight.
At the start of a campaign, the vendor’s expectation is at its highest point in a falling market. As the weeks go by, the conditioning is natural. The vendor is getting less enquiry, lower offers, feedback that compares the property to others and suggests it’s overpriced. When they’re getting that visibility and they’re open to hearing it, they start forming a new price point in their mind and accepting it.
That’s the 5% in our data. Most sellers arrive at the right price eventually. The cost is the weeks it takes to get there, because the most motivated buyers see a property at its launch, and many of them don’t come back for the reduction.
How the buyer’s side calculates value right now
Cate doesn’t try to predict how far the market will fall before she makes an offer.
The price you pay needs to take into account your personal risk profile. You can’t forward plan how much a market might fall or grow. I want to pay market value or sharper. I don’t want to pay a premium, but I won’t resist buying at the right price just because in three months it might be worth 2% less. That’s a good way to lose a property. None of us can pick the bottom of the market.
Her method is tighter than most sellers expect:
Comparable sales analysis, with a very short range of recent sales rather than going back three months. I’ll look only at sales up to four weeks old. If there aren’t enough, I go back further and apply a percentage of capital loss to those older figures.
Ben’s insight: if you’re pricing off a sale from the spring, the buyer’s advocate across the table is not. They’ve already discounted it. Price off the last month of results, and if you have to use older sales, adjust them down the way a buyer will.
Our guide to working out what your house is worth walks through the comparable sales method.
What actually makes a buyer pay more
I asked Cate what gets a buyer to stretch. Her answer had three parts, and only two of them help sellers.
Fear of missing out.
A hot seller’s market will make a buyer pay more. They’ve got social proof in their face every Saturday, watching property sell beyond the listed price. You’ll see a fatigued buyer say, I’ve had enough of this, I’ll just pay it.
Scarcity with a deadline.
If the property they want is particularly scarce and they know it only comes up once a year, it’s now or never. If they’ve got kids starting school next year or a baby on the way, they’ll pay more when that property comes up, because they’ve been looking for months.
Buyers who haven’t done their homework.
Some buyers just look at a price tag, or assume that because a property has had a price reduction they’re getting a bargain. You’ve got to know what the property was worth to start with.
That third one is a warning for sellers too. A price reduction only reads as a bargain to buyers who don’t check the comparables. Advocates and informed buyers read it as a price that was wrong from the start.
Cate also flagged timing. In auction-heavy states, the first weeks of the new year often run hot.
January is a bit of a shutdown, so February can be really meaty. People have pent-up energy, they’ve seen very little in January, and they jump at the first thing that comes along. Some sold just before Christmas and have settlements pending, so they push harder because they either buy something or go into the rental market.
The other way to get competition
Pricing well is the most reliable way to create competition. When the market sees value, buyers turn up together, and that’s when a clear process matters.
A recent Unreserved sale in South Australia shows it. The owner advertised at $50,000, and within the first few weeks three or four buyers wanted to make an offer at around the same mark. Instead of fielding them one by one, we moved the sale to an online auction with no auctioneer. It sold for $80,000.
Cate’s point about competing buyers applies here: the hardest part for an owner is running one fair process and sticking to it. She explains what good agents do with competing offers in our Q&A with her, and our guide to negotiation strategies for sellers covers the options.
What to do with your price
- Price off the last four weeks of sales, not the best sale you can find.
- Assume the best buyers ask about your price in week one. A buffer costs you the people most likely to pay well.
- Read your feedback early. If enquiry is light and feedback keeps comparing you to cheaper homes, the market is telling you the number.
- If several buyers land at once, pick a process and tell everyone what it is.
- Watch February. If you can be ready to launch in the first weeks of the new year, buyers will be too.
Unreserved sellers get an AI valuation built from recent comparable sales before they set a price, and pay a flat fee instead of commission. At a typical 2.1% rate, commission on a $1.2 million sale is about $25,200. Sellers keep the difference.
Start with the right number.
Our free AI valuation uses recent comparable sales, the same evidence a buyer’s advocate will use to test your price.
Get a free valuationGeneral information only, current as at October 2026. Not legal or financial advice.
EXPERT CONTRIBUTOR
Cate Bakos
Cate Bakos is Chair of the Property Investment Professionals of Australia (PIPA), the professional body for property investment advisers and buyer’s agents, and director of Melbourne buyer’s advocacy firm Cate Bakos Property. She has been a buyer’s agent since 2011 and co-hosts The Property Trio podcast. Her comments are general information, not financial advice.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Ben Williams
Connect with Ben on LinkedIn →
Ben spent 15+ years as a licensed estate agent and conducted over 2,000 auctions before founding Unreserved. He holds a Bachelor of Applied Science (Property & Valuation) from RMIT and is licensed across VIC, NSW, QLD, SA, and WA.
